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By David Greenaway, Chris Milner, Shujie Yao (eds.)

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Example text

This model is a relatively standard global general equilibrium model that has been widely used for projections and for analysis of global trade liberalization. For this analysis it was run in a relatively standard form, with constant returns to scale in production, fixed aggregate employment, and with tariff revenues returned costlessly to consumers. The model uses the Armington assumption to deal with the evident distinctions between goods from different countries that frequently manifest themselves through two-way trade in the same finely defined commodity.

5 Summary of Doha partial liberalization scenarios Baseline Scenarios A–D Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Amends 2001 protection measures by allowing EU eastward enlargement to 25 members, implementation of WTO accession commitments by China, and implementation of Uruguay Round commitments including abolition of quotas on textiles and clothing by the end of 2004, followed by normal global growth projection for ten more years to 2015 (baseline simulation) All assume cuts in agricultural domestic support in four developed country markets and abolition of agricultural export subsidies in all countries, plus: ‘Tiered’ formula for agricultural market access with smaller tariff cuts for developing countries and none for least developed countries Scenario A plus exceptions for sensitive products (2% of agricultural tariff lines for developed countries and 4% for developing countries) tariff bindings on these products are cut by 15% Scenario A plus 50% cut in all tariffs on non-agricultural products for developed countries, 33% for developing countries, and none for least developed countries Developed countries’ harmonizing formula cuts for agriculture, plus developed countries’ 50% cut in all nonagricultural tariffs, are also each applied in developing and least developed countries Source: Authors’ assumptions (see text).

What is striking in China’s case is the very large percentage point reduction of the cut in the agricultural tariffs facing China. 8. The first four columns of the table present the welfare results in US$ billion per year, while the remaining four columns present the same results as a share of GDP. 8 is that China would suffer small losses with a Doha-type outcome that included only agriculture. 5 billion per year, most of these gains are concentrated in the industrial countries. This is partly because many of the industrial countries have high and variable tariffs in agriculture whose abolition gives them substantial welfare gains.

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