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Additional resources for Fiscal Policy in the European Union
The compatibility of automatic fiscal stabilizers with the rule of the SGP thus depends on the sign of the output gap.
Thus, public expenditure will be fully balanced by a more important private saving, resulting from households and firms taking precautionary measures. Consequently, the fall in the private aggregate demand will reduce, or bring back even to zero, the expected expansionary multiplier effects. In other words, in a case of perfect Ricardian equivalence, a tax cut, leading to an increasing public debt, will be fully offset by higher private saving. Indeed, economic agents will anticipate higher taxes in the future to refund the debt.
In two years, the primary full-employment budget deficit was cut down by 7 per cent of GDP once again, the growth rate went up and the ratio of debt to GDP started to decline for the first time since the beginning of the 1970s. In that case, fiscal consolidation was reinforced by an exchange rate policy which stimulated domestic demand and led to a fall in interest rates. Giavazzi and Pagano (1990) thus showed that anti-Keynesian effects on private consumption and investment took place, but only in Denmark.