By Sang M. Lee, Gerald L. Moeller, Lester A. Digman (auth.)
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Extra resources for Network Analysis for Management Decisions: A Stochastic Approach
The following oversimplified example illustrates how a basic VERT network might be constructed. The problem consists of a motorist faced with a flat tire. The motorist, driving a borrowed car, is not sure whether the car trunk contains a jack or a spare tire, nor whether the spare tire contains sufficient air pressure. If a jack and a spare with sufficient air pressure are present, the motorist can proceed with the task of changing the tire. The task requires the following sequential actions: unload jack and spare, jack up car, remove flat and mount spare, let down car, load tire and jack into the trunk.
Navy's successful application of PERT to the development of the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile System in 1958 generated a very large body of network analysis methodology. PERT, as originally designed, was totally time oriented and did not directly consider cost, availability of resources, resultant performance, or risk. Furthermore, time, as entered in the three time estimates of normal, optimistic, and pessimistic for the beta distribution, has drawn considerable comment in the literature. Later modifications of the technique were designed to deal with the important cost and reliability parameters for project applications.
The object of manipulating the model is to determine an acceptable solution to the problem. The general form of an operations research model is E = f(c,u), where E is effectiveness, c represents the variables that can be controlled (independent variables), and u represents the variables that cannot be controlled (exogenous variables). In other words, effectiveness is a function of the controllable and uncontrollable variables. " It must incorporate the variables and relationships important to the problem at hand.